College Basketball Upsets Shake March Madness Projections

As college basketball enters the final weeks of regular season play, a series of stunning upsets has sent shockwaves through March Madness projection models and left Selection Sunday scenarios more unpredictable than ever.

The most significant surprise came Tuesday night when 14th-ranked Saint Mary's fell to San Francisco 89-82 in a thrilling West Coast Conference showdown. The Dons, led by junior guard Carlos Martinez's career-high 34 points, shot an incredible 64% from three-point range to hand the Gaels their third conference loss and potentially knock them off the projected No. 3 seed line.

"This is what college basketball is all about," said San Francisco head coach Chris Johnson after the victory. "We've been building toward this moment all season. Our guys believed we could compete with anyone, and tonight they proved it on the biggest stage."

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic Coast Conference, Virginia Tech continued its late-season surge with a 77-70 victory over 8th-ranked Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium. The Hokies, who were predicted to finish near the bottom of the ACC in preseason polls, have now won seven of their last nine games and find themselves squarely on the tournament bubble.

The victory was Virginia Tech's first at Duke since 1995 and came behind a dominant performance from senior forward Michael Washington, who recorded 24 points and 11 rebounds. "We've been the underdog all year," Washington said. "But we never stopped believing in what we could accomplish as a team."

Perhaps the most intriguing development involves the Mountain West Conference, where three teams now find themselves with realistic chances of earning at-large bids to the NCAA Tournament. Boise State's 85-79 overtime victory over Nevada on Wednesday night created a four-way tie atop the conference standings with just two weeks remaining in the regular season.

Bracket experts are scrambling to adjust their projections, with some analysts suggesting that traditional powerhouse programs like Kentucky and Indiana could find themselves on the wrong side of the bubble come Selection Sunday. "We're seeing the depth of college basketball on full display," said ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi. "The gap between the major conferences and mid-majors has never been smaller."

The chaos extends to the Big Ten, where 6th-ranked Illinois suffered a shocking 71-68 home loss to Northwestern, a team that entered the week with a 6-8 conference record. The Wildcats used a 15-2 run in the final four minutes to complete the comeback and potentially save their season.

With conference tournaments just two weeks away, every game carries tournament implications. Teams that looked like locks for March Madness now face uncertainty, while programs that seemed destined for the NIT suddenly find themselves with realistic paths to the Big Dance. The 2026 tournament selection is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable in recent memory.